Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: BTC and ETH Downtrend Continues

Market Overview: BTC and ETH Price Decline

Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing a sustained downward trend, with Bitcoin declining 16%—a loss of $12,000—and Ethereum falling 14%, or $290, over the last four days. This price action follows a nine-month period of decline, consistent with previous analytical expectations regarding market momentum.

Institutional Demand vs. Market Dynamics

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju reports that while institutional demand via ETFs remains robust, it has not prevented price depreciation. With approximately 500,000 coins absorbed by spot ETFs over the past two years, the current price weakness is primarily attributed to a decline in aggregate demand against increasing supply. Roughly 40% of Bitcoin holdings are currently in a loss position, which may increase the risk of further liquidations.

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BTC/USD Technical Outlook

Bitcoin maintains a clear bearish structure on the daily timeframe. A bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) identified between $79,300 and $81,200 has been confirmed on the hourly charts, reinforcing the short-term negative outlook. The primary technical target remains at $57,500, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the preceding three-year uptrend.

ETH/USD Technical Outlook

Ethereum continues to follow a persistent downward trajectory, driven by a bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. The target price of $1,742 has been successfully reached, and current market conditions show no signs of trend reversal. Traders are advised to monitor newly forming daily FVGs for potential short-selling opportunities as the downward trend persists.

Technical Glossary

The analysis utilizes specific market structure indicators: FVG (Fair Value Gap) denotes areas of price inefficiency; OB (Order Block) represents zones where liquidity is gathered by market participants; and CHOCH (Change of Character) signals a shift in market structure. These tools provide the basis for identifying trend direction and potential entry points within the current bearish environment.

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