Crypto Market Analysis: BTC and ETH Struggle Amid Hawkish Fed

The cryptocurrency market remains under selling pressure after Bitcoin failed to maintain momentum above the $64,000 level and Ethereum fell below $1,900. Despite the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% target range for the fifth consecutive meeting, digital assets failed to rally due to an increasingly hawkish policy posture.

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The policy stance was reflected in a rare 9-3 vote split. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan dissented in favor of an immediate 25-basis-point interest rate hike. This represents the largest number of hawkish dissents within the committee since September 2016, signaling growing momentum for further monetary tightening.

During the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced this hawkish outlook. Warsh emphasized that the central bank remains strictly committed to its 2% inflation target, noting that five years of elevated inflation cannot be resolved quickly. The combination of hawkish dissents and firm rhetoric indicates that interest rate hikes remain a distinct possibility at upcoming meetings.

Market focus now shifts to key macro catalysts, including Chair Warsh's scheduled speech at the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27–29, followed by the next FOMC meeting on September 15–16. Until then, crypto assets are expected to remain constrained by ongoing monetary policy uncertainty.

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Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Scenarios

For long Bitcoin positions, an entry point is identified near $64,100 with an upside target of $64,600. At $64,600, traders may exit long positions and consider immediate short positions on a rebound, targeting a 30–35 point reversal. Bullish setups require the price to trade above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator to remain above zero. Alternatively, buying is viable around the $63,800 support level if a breakdown fails to materialize, targeting $64,100 and $64,600.

For short positions, a sell signal is triggered upon breaking below $63,800 toward a downside target of $63,300. At $63,300, positions should be closed with immediate buying on a rebound for a expected 20–25 point move. Bearish conditions require the 50-day moving average to sit above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator to remain below zero. Shorting is also valid from the $64,100 resistance level upon a rejected breakout, targeting $63,800 and $63,300.

Ethereum Technical Analysis and Scenarios

For Ethereum, a buy entry is placed at $1,903 with a growth target of $1,922. Around $1,922, long positions should be closed in favor of an immediate short on a rebound, anticipating a 30–35 point move lower. Confirming buying signals requires the 50-day moving average to stay below the price and the Awesome Oscillator to read above zero. A secondary long entry is available at the $1,895 support level, targeting $1,903 and $1,922.

Conversely, a short entry is set at $1,895 with a price target of $1,876. Around $1,876, traders should exit short positions and buy on a rebound, looking for a 30–35 point upside move. Bearish confirmation requires the price to remain below the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator to hold below zero. Short positions can also be established at the upper resistance boundary of $1,903 if an upside breakout fails, targeting $1,895 and $1,876.

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