EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Impulse Persists Amid Data Gaps

EUR/USD Market Overview

The EUR/USD pair continues to operate within a established bearish framework, though recent price action has provided minor opportunities for bullish activity. Market participants remain focused on US inflation metrics following ambiguous signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the path of future monetary policy.

Labor Market and Fed Policy

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Recent data indicates a cooling in the US labor market, with job creation falling approximately 100,000 below consensus expectations over the past three months. This weakness may compel the FOMC to exercise greater caution in its approach to tightening monetary policy, shifting the focus toward upcoming inflation reports for further clarity.

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Geopolitical Impact and Market Sentiment

Despite renewed geopolitical tensions, including fluctuations in Iranian oil export policy, the market has shown limited sensitivity to these developments. Traders appear to be pricing in recurring geopolitical narratives, resulting in a decoupling of asset prices from traditional risk-related volatility.

Technical Structure and Levels

The bearish impulse initiated on April 17 remains intact. While the invalidation of imbalance 18 provided a temporary reprieve for the euro, imbalance 17 serves as the primary resistance level. The pair recently tested liquidity at the August 1, 2025 lows, which remains the sole technical support factor for current bullish attempts.

Outlook and Trading Considerations

The broader trend remains subject to potential reversal, but current chart structures lack the necessary bullish patterns to support long positions. Investors are advised to wait for clear technical confirmation, either through a substantiated reversal pattern or a defined sell signal within the existing imbalance zone at 17.

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