EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 10 Outlook

Technical Overview and Price Levels

EUR/USD continues to trade slightly above the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1409. As long as the pair holds this support, the potential for an upward move toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1514 remains valid. Conversely, a sustained breach below 1.1409 would likely shift market sentiment in favor of the US dollar, targeting the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1290.

Wave Structure and Market Sentiment

Would you like to read more good news about EUR/USD, Geopolitical, and Uncertainty?

The hourly chart exhibits a bearish wave structure despite recent buying pressure. While the pair has seen two weeks of gains, the current upward wave has not yet exceeded the previous high. A definitive trend reversal requires a breakout above 1.1620 or the formation of two consecutive bullish waves to confirm that the broader bearish trend has concluded.

Unique stair-step trend trading with the Stairsteps Expert Advisor. Learn more.

Economic Data Impact

Economic releases on Thursday provided mixed signals. Germany's trade balance exceeded expectations, while US jobless claims were in line with forecasts and existing home sales data disappointed. Despite these releases, the market reaction remained subdued due to the low impact of the reports on current price action.

Geopolitical Context and Market Stability

Geopolitical conditions remain a focal point for traders, with a reported pause in military activity in the Middle East and ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran. While uncertainty surrounding potential follow-up talks persists, the market has maintained a state of relative calm. Without clear updates on regional stability, sellers appear to lack the momentum to regain control.

4-Hour Chart and COT Analysis

On the 4-hour timeframe, the pair has secured a close above the 1.1411 Fibonacci level, reinforcing the current bullish bias toward the 1.1514 target. The descending trend channel remains active, and no significant divergences are noted on technical indicators. According to the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, the market shows a balanced stance, with speculative traders holding an equal number of long and short positions at 235,000 each.

Trading Strategy

Long positions initiated following the close above 1.1409 remain viable with a target of 1.1514. Short positions should only be considered if the pair records a daily close back below the 1.1409 support level, aiming for the 1.1290 support. Given the current low volatility, traders are advised to maintain caution and monitor the 1.1409 pivot point closely.

Thank you for reading. Level up your trading with proven RobotFX expert advisors – check them out now.