GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Maintains Bullish Momentum

Technical Price Action and Trends

The GBP/USD pair has demonstrated a clear shift toward a bullish structure on the hourly timeframe. After rebounding from the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3298, the pair reached the 76.4% level at 1.3382. Current price action indicates a consolidation trend, with the pair eyeing a potential breakout toward the 1.3454–1.3457 resistance zone.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348 after a successful rebound from the 1.3159 support. A decisive close above 1.3348 would likely facilitate further gains toward the 50.0% retracement at 1.3409. Conversely, a rejection at current resistance levels would shift focus back toward the 1.3277 support level.

Market Sentiment and Fundamentals

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The market has recently turned toward a more favorable outlook for the British pound, supported by shifts in U.S. labor market data. Although the U.S. unemployment report remains a focal point, the weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls data has dampened expectations for near-term FOMC monetary tightening, weakening the U.S. dollar.

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report highlights a continued, though potentially stretched, dominance by bearish speculators. While short positions significantly outweigh long positions, the technical shift to a seven-day consecutive rise on the daily chart suggests that bearish control is facing substantial exhaustion and a possible reversal.

Outlook and Trading Considerations

Market activity is expected to remain subdued leading into the U.S. Independence Day holiday. While central bank communications, such as the speech by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, remain on the calendar, their impact is likely to be marginal in the current low-liquidity environment.

For trading strategy, short positions may be considered on a confirmed rejection from the 1.3382 resistance level, targeting 1.3335 and 1.3298. Alternatively, a clear consolidation above 1.3382 provides a bullish signal, with a primary target set at 1.3454–1.3457. Traders should monitor geopolitical developments, which continue to influence broad risk sentiment alongside standard economic indicators.

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