EUR/USD Analysis: Eurozone GDP Growth Supports Upward Bias

The euro found fundamental support following stronger-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone, where third-quarter GDP expanded by 0.4% compared to the 0.2% forecast. Easing concerns over high energy costs and elevated interest rates, alongside resilient growth in Germany and accelerating inflation in France, have solidified the region's economic footing. Consequently, expectations remain intact for the European Central Bank to deliver a final rate hike in December, bringing the deposit rate to 2.75%.

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In contrast, market attention is shifting to U.S. economic indicators, including the Chicago PMI, which is projected to decline to 55.8 from 58.8. Paired with recent data indicating U.S. consumer spending expanded by only 0.5%, a softer PMI reading could reinforce views of a cooling U.S. expansion. Market participants will also monitor upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve official Mary Daly for clues on policy direction.

EUR/USD Intraday Trading Scenarios

Intraday technical analysis for EUR/USD focuses on key support and resistance boundaries between 1.1160 and 1.1243. Entry signals rely on MACD momentum confirmation to validate potential breakout or reversal setups.

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A bullish scenario primary entry emerges on a move to 1.1211, provided the MACD indicator is above the zero line and rising, targeting 1.1243. At the 1.1243 resistance level, a short position may be opened targeting a 30 to 35 point correction. Alternatively, if EUR/USD tests 1.1191 twice in succession while MACD shows oversold conditions, a long position targeting 1.1211 and 1.1243 can be initiated.

A bearish scenario triggers if the pair breaks below 1.1191 with the MACD falling below the zero line, targeting 1.1160. Upon reaching 1.1160, short positions should be closed in favor of a long reversal targeting a 20 to 25 point bounce. A sell signal also occurs if the price tests 1.1211 twice with MACD in overbought territory, targeting downside levels at 1.1191 and 1.1160.

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