EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Intraday Trading Outlook

During the Asian trading session, a price test at 1.1236 coincided with the MACD indicator moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid long entry point for the euro. Following this setup, the EUR/USD pair advanced toward the initial target area of 1.1269. The single currency moved higher despite a lack of significant domestic catalysts.

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Final September eurozone CPI data confirmed an annual inflation rate of 3.8% alongside core CPI at 2.5%, indicating persistent and broadening price pressures. Meanwhile, the eurozone reported a wider-than-expected goods trade deficit of €6.8 billion for August, compared to the forecasted €4.5 billion surplus. Markets largely overlooked the weaker trade figures, shifting primary focus toward U.S. dollar dynamics.

The macroeconomic calendar for the United States remains relatively light during the second half of the day, featuring only industrial production, manufacturing output, and capacity utilization figures. If these incoming metrics print below expectations, dollar demand is likely to soften, providing a supportive environment for risk assets and potential further gains for the euro.

EUR/USD Intraday Trading Strategies

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For long positions, Scenario 1 involves buying near 1.1275 with an upside target at 1.1309, followed by a potential short position targeting a 30 to 35 pip retracement. Traders should confirm that the MACD indicator is positioned above the zero line and rising before execution. Scenario 2 considers buying if the price tests 1.1254 twice while the MACD is in oversold territory, anticipating a rebound toward 1.1275 and 1.1309.

For short positions, Scenario 1 outlines selling after the pair reaches 1.1254, targeting 1.1221 with a subsequent reversal long position for a 20 to 25 pip recovery. This setup requires the MACD to be below the zero line and beginning to decline. Scenario 2 suggests selling if the price tests 1.1275 twice while the MACD resides in overbought territory, targeting downside levels at 1.1254 and 1.1221.

Beginner traders should exercise caution and avoid market exposure ahead of major fundamental releases to mitigate vulnerability to sudden volatility. Implementing strict risk management, including stop-loss orders and defined position sizing, is essential for preserving capital during intraday operations.

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