GBP/USD Analysis: Sterling Eyes 1.3650 Ahead of US GDP Data

GBP/USD Market Overview

The GBP/USD pair posted moderate gains following a muted market reaction to the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. Sterling remains positioned within a short-term upward trend, supported by market expectations surrounding the upcoming Bank of England policy decision. Daily and weekly technical structures point toward upside potential targeting 1.3650, which represents the upper boundary of the broader daily sideways channel.

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD maintains a bullish bias while trading above key Ichimoku support lines. The Senkou Span B line at 1.3277 serves as critical support required to maintain the current upward sequence, while the Kijun-sen line stands at 1.3339. As long as price remains above Senkou Span B, the broader technical outlook remains positive.

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Key intraday support levels are defined at 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3277, and 1.3248, with lower support established at 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3096–1.3115, and 1.3042–1.3050. On the upside, primary resistance targets lie at 1.3369–1.3377, followed by 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, and 1.3671–1.3681. A sustained rebound from the 1.3301–1.3309 area signals potential upside targeting 1.3369–1.3377, while a break below 1.3301 opens room for targets at 1.3277 and 1.3248.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Positioning

The latest Commitment of Traders report dated October 20 reflects an uptick in bullish positioning among non-commercial market participants. Non-commercial traders opened 10,000 long contracts while closing 16,500 short contracts during the week. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 26,500 contracts, reinforcing the structural underlying demand for sterling despite periodic strength in the US dollar.

Fundamental Drivers and Macroeconomic Outlook

The UK economic calendar is quiet, leaving British pound price action reliant on technical sentiment and upcoming Central Bank expectations. In contrast, the US calendar features key releases, including third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and the PCE inflation report. While the PCE release is expected to have a limited impact post-Fed meeting, the US GDP data represents the primary catalyst for short-term volatility in the pair.

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