EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Outlook: May 15

Market Overview and Technical Context

The EUR/USD pair recently tested the 1.1631 support level. Technical analysis indicates that the MACD indicator was positioned significantly below the zero line during this move, limiting further downside potential and suggesting a lack of bearish conviction at that juncture.

Macroeconomic Drivers

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Market attention now shifts to upcoming U.S. economic data, including the Empire Manufacturing Index and industrial production figures. These reports serve as critical barometers for the health of the U.S. industrial sector, with potential to trigger volatility in the euro. Strong data is expected to increase selling pressure on the pair, while weaker figures could facilitate an upward move.

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Buying Strategy

For long positions, the primary entry point is 1.1649, targeting 1.1678. Traders should confirm that the MACD is rising from above the zero line before initiating this position. Alternatively, a second buying scenario involves two consecutive tests of the 1.1626 level while the MACD remains in oversold territory, signaling a potential reversal.

Selling Strategy

Short positions are favored upon a breach of the 1.1626 level, with a downside target of 1.1594. Confirmation requires the MACD to be trending downward from below the zero line. Additionally, selling pressure may emerge if the price tests the 1.1649 level twice while the MACD is in the overbought zone.

Risk Management

Traders are advised to exercise caution during high-impact news releases to avoid unexpected price volatility. Implementing strict stop-loss orders is essential to mitigate potential losses. A disciplined approach, based on a pre-defined trading plan rather than spontaneous decisions, is recommended for intraday market participation.

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