Oil Price Forecast and Technical Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

The global energy market remains cautiously optimistic as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show signs of stabilizing without escalating into a full-scale conflict. Financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, suggest that maintaining the current ceasefire regime is the most likely scenario for the coming months, providing a foundation for price stabilization.

Oil Market Scenarios and Supply Dynamics

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Deutsche Bank analysts assign a 60% probability to a base-case scenario where oil prices decline toward the $85–$90 per barrel range. This forecast is predicated on the absence of renewed hostilities rather than the formal signing of a nuclear deal or a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States.

Global supply chains are gradually adapting to the deficit in Middle Eastern exports. Significant increases in oil and gas production from the United States and Russia have played a critical role in offsetting supply disruptions. This suggests that market equilibrium could be restored over time, even without a comprehensive resolution to regional conflicts.

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A more pessimistic alternative exists where the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded through the end of the year. In such a scenario, analysts warn that oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel and remain elevated. This would likely trigger global inflation, slow economic growth, and force central banks to tighten monetary policies further.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD and GBP/USD

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a broader bullish trend according to recent wave analysis. While the instrument is currently experiencing a corrective phase, the improving geopolitical backdrop is supporting buyer optimism. Analysts expect the pair to resume its ascent with technical targets situated near the 1.1900 level.

The GBP/USD pair exhibits a distinct five-wave upward structure that may be nearing completion. The current fifth wave is projected to reach resistance around the 1.3699 mark, which aligns with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. If geopolitical stability persists, the pound's bullish trend could extend, though a corrective setup is expected following the completion of the current wave cycle.

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