Political Headwinds and Technical Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Political Developments and Economic Implications

Recent data indicates a decline in domestic political support for former President Trump, particularly regarding immigration policy, which faces disapproval from 59% of Americans. While support remains firm among Republican voters, it has waned significantly among independent voters, with approval ratings in this segment falling to 25%. This shift suggests potential challenges for the Republican party in the upcoming elections, particularly if cost-of-living pressures, such as rising fuel and food prices, persist.

Energy Markets and Geopolitical Factors

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Oil prices continue to hover at elevated levels, with Brent crude trading between $115 and $116 per barrel after recent peaks of $120.50. The lack of a diplomatic breakthrough between Tehran and Washington suggests that oil traffic is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels in the near term. Consequently, market expectations for a significant price decline remain low, keeping upward pressure on energy costs.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently supported near the 1.1665 level, which has prevented further downward momentum. Wave analysis suggests the pair is within an upward trend segment, currently undergoing a corrective phase. Assuming no escalation in geopolitical tensions, the outlook remains bullish, with potential for the instrument to target the 1.1900 level.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

The wave structure for GBP/USD indicates a mature five-wave upward trend nearing completion. While a corrective phase may follow this structure, the base scenario for the immediate term involves an increase toward the 1.3700 level. Future movements will remain heavily contingent upon evolving geopolitical conditions and broader market sentiment.

Risk Management and Market Strategy

Market participants are advised to favor simple and clear wave structures to reduce uncertainty. Given that there is no absolute certainty in market direction, the use of protective stop-loss orders remains a critical component of any trading strategy. Wave analysis is best utilized when integrated with broader analytical frameworks to confirm potential market turns.

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