BTC/USD and ETH/USD Technical Outlook: Downtrend Remains Intact

Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently undergoing a period of corrective price action following a week of relative inactivity. Despite these minor recoveries, market demand remains subdued, and there is no technical evidence to suggest a shift toward a bullish trend in the immediate term. Analysts note that a potential market bottom could eventually materialize within the $40,000 to $55,000 range, though the prevailing downtrend remains firmly established.

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Current investor sentiment analysis suggests that market participants often act on emotion rather than structural strategy, frequently buying during rallies while hesitating at lower price levels. Historical comparisons to the 2018 bear cycle highlight that rallies during a broader downtrend are typical corrections. Consequently, the market remains in a phase where primary downward momentum is expected to resume following the conclusion of short-term corrections.

BTC/USD Technical Outlook

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Bitcoin continues to reflect a structural downtrend characterized by intermittent counter-trend corrections. The primary downside target remains at $57,500, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding three-year uptrend. The area between $68,000 and $70,700 currently functions as a Point of Interest (POI) for establishing short positions, given the presence of a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) pattern.

While the overall bias remains bearish, short-term traders may observe potential for minor bullish activity on the 4-hour timeframe. Those looking to trade against the primary trend may consider small long positions if supported by confirmed bullish patterns. However, traders are cautioned that such movements remain strictly corrective in nature.

ETH/USD Technical Analysis

The daily timeframe for Ethereum indicates that the downtrend initiated in August of last year is ongoing. A key bearish order block on the weekly chart continues to influence price action, suggesting that the current decline may have further room to develop. Should Bitcoin respond negatively to its daily bearish FVG, Ethereum is positioned to resume its decline toward support targets of $1,391 and $788.

In the near term, bullish patterns on the 4-hour timeframe, such as the recently played-out FVG in the $1,721 to $1,771 range, offer limited scope for counter-trend entries. Until clear signs of a trend reversal emerge, the outlook for Ethereum remains negative. Market participants are advised to monitor liquidity zones and structural breaks, such as Change of Character (CHOCH) signals, for further trend developments.

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