EUR/USD Analysis: Key Technical Levels Ahead of US Data

The EUR/USD pair remains under close observation as market participants await key economic data releases from the United States, including the labor market report, average hourly earnings, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. In recent trading, a test of the 1.1182 resistance level resulted in a modest 10-pip decline as the MACD indicator crossed below the zero line. Volatility is expected to rise depending on the strength of incoming US macroeconomic indicators.

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US labor market figures are expected to show a recovery following September's sluggish payroll growth of 29,000 jobs, which fell short of the 84,000 consensus. Stronger employment and wage growth data could reinforce inflationary expectations and heighten market anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Such an outcome would likely boost demand for the US dollar, placing renewed downside pressure on the euro.

EUR/USD Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: A buy entry may be considered upon a sustained move toward 1.1182, with a primary profit target at 1.1218. Upon reaching 1.1218, long positions should be closed, with an opportunity to initiate a reverse short position targeting a 30–35 point pullback. Traders should confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and trending upward before entering. Weak US economic data would support this bullish path.

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Scenario #2: Long positions can also be established if the price tests the 1.1159 support level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This setup signals limited downside potential and a probable upward reversal toward 1.1182 and 1.1218.

EUR/USD Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: A sell position can be opened if price drops to the 1.1159 level, with a target at 1.1124. At 1.1124, short positions should be closed, and an immediate long position opened, targeting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction. Selling pressure is expected to intensify if US economic reports exceed expectations. The MACD indicator must be below the zero line and moving downward prior to entry.

Scenario #2: A sell trade is also valid if the 1.1182 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator resides in overbought territory. This technical condition limits further upward momentum and favors a downward reversal toward 1.1159 and 1.1124.

Trading Considerations

Traders should exercise caution ahead of major macroeconomic releases. High-impact news events can lead to rapid price swings, making strict risk control and mandatory stop-loss placement essential to protect trading accounts from unexpected market volatility.

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