EUR/USD and GBP/USD Technical Outlook Following ECB and US Data

ECB Rate Decision and Policy Commentary

The European Central Bank left its deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.50% and its main refinancing rate at 2.65%, in line with market consensus. ECB President Christine Lagarde addressed headline inflation running above 3.0%, stating that second-round effects have not materialized and attributing price pressures largely to energy costs and Middle East conflicts. Her comments indicated that while the central bank will not tolerate lingering high inflation, current conditions do not demand immediate tightening.

US Macro Data Aligns with Expectations

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In the United States, Q3 GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4%, topping the 3.2% consensus forecast and accelerating from 2.2% in Q2. Market impact was contained as attention focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Annual PCE increased from 3.4% to 3.6%, while monthly inflation rose from 0.3% to 0.5%, matching expectations precisely and reducing immediate anxiety regarding Federal Reserve policy adjustments.

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Upcoming European Indicators and Market Risk

Focus shifts to preliminary European economic reports, including flash Q3 GDP figures for France (+0.1% expected), Germany (+0.1% expected), and the Eurozone (+0.2% q/q, +1.1% y/y). Weak growth metrics alongside slowing German inflation could weigh on the euro, potentially offsetting the ECB's hawkish tone. In the US, market participants await the Chicago PMI, projected to moderate to 55.8 from 58.8.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD buyers are monitoring a potential recovery above 1.1136 toward resistance at 1.1158. A confirmed break above 1.1158 opens the path toward 1.1176 and 1.1195, where profit-taking and short rebounds of 15–20 pips are expected. On the downside, a sustained move below 1.1136 targets secondary support at 1.1115, with stronger buying interest anticipated near 1.1082.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has fully retraced its recent weekly decline, with upside momentum targeting immediate resistance at 1.3404. A breakout above this level brings 1.3437 and 1.3467 into focus, where corrective short setups for 25–30 pips may develop. Downside pullbacks are expected to attract dip buyers near support zones at 1.3364, 1.3331, and 1.3298.

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